Wednesday 4 January 2012

The Law of Averages

The Law of Averages or more correctly the Law of Large Numbers says
"law of large numbers (LLN) is a therom that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the aaverages of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed."

Say that you were flipping a coin where you give heads the value of +1 and tails the value of -1.
The expected value is 0.
You may flip the coin 100 times and you will get results of either +1 or -1. Towards the end say you have a value of +3
The more times you repeate this the closer you will get to the expected value of 0.

What does this mean for you the online gambler?
The law of large numbers means that you may get a streak of wins but you will at some stage get a streak of losses equal or greater than the streak of wins.
For instance:
You are betting 1unit and you win 8 times therefore you win 8units.
The law or large numbers then delivers the streak of losses.
Using your progressive system you have now net loss of 255units with your next bet having to be 256units to make back what you have loss.

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